MY KENTUCKY DERBY FAVORITES
My favorite horse race, The Kentucky Derby, is coming up next Saturday, March 1. I’ve been tracking horses for the past few months to see which ones will make it to the derby and win. At the end of this blog post, I’ll let you know what horses I am betting on in the Derby.
But first I want to update you on another, more important race – the Cam4 Cam of the Month contest for April. Here is how that race is shaping up this month.
Race 1 – Fillies (The Oak) – Muffin69er broke fast from the gate, followed by Blond_Hot_24 who quickly took a huge lead by the first turn. Alice_meimei the trendy Japanese import briefly challenged for the lead but was held back by the 9 times stakes winner Blond_Hot_24. Then out of nowhere, a 20-1 long-shot named Liisa678 came flying from the back of the pack on the outside to gain 4 positions by the half mile. The race was on. Could this unknown upset the super filly. And what about the previous stakes winner Nice_easy who was running a quiet race in the middle of the pack with CandyFloss, JJBonde2010 and ReganMay. Sensing Lissa678 on her heels Blond_Hot_24 widened the gap and at the final turn it is Blond_Hot_24 with a huge lead over Liisa678, followed closely by Nice_easy with Alice_meimei and CandyFloss trailing.
Current Leader - Blond_hot_24
Race 2 -Stallions (The Wood) – Darobsas broke quickly from the gate and took an early lead while Nukjuanluis, the other favorite, bobbled the start and raced with the pack which included Bewandu and Peeboy68. Dippyguy challenged at the first turn and settled in at 2nd. By five furlongs Nukjuanluis had joined Dippyguy to come within two lengths of Darobsas who stubbornly held the lead. Rhyscarter was also coming up and running well in 4th. All the boys settled in on the back stretch but by the final turn Rhyscarter had edged into 3rd spot. Heading into the home stretch was Darobsas with the lead, Nukjuanluis one back, Rhyscarter one back of him with Dippyguy and Peeboy68 fading in 4th and 5th.
Current Leader - Darobsas
Race 3 – Mares & Stallions (The Derby)– BDSMScotland broke first and took the lead followed by Soon2beup and HotandJuicy. At the quarter all three where neck and neck. However BDSMScotland surged clear and at the half mile was leading both by 2 lengths. Goldplatinum and Ta8734 shook off the others and ran with HotandJuicy and Soon2beup behind BDSMScotland, who did not ease up and continued to gain ground. Going into the final turn BDSMScotland was 6 lengths in front of HotandJuicy who was closely followed by Goldplatinum, Soon2beup and Ta8734 in fifth.
Current Leader - BDSMscotland
Race 4 – Shemares (The San Fran Mile) – Ginevracam broke first from the chute followed by Amatistats and Aletrans. Amatistats drew clear and took the lead at the quarter pole while Ginevracam, Aletrans and Carlijames dueled for 2nd place. They stretched out in the middle of the race and in the final stretch it was Amatistats with a three length lead, followed by Ginevracam with a two length lead over Aletrans. Carlijames and Kittikat had faded and where five lengths back of the leaders.
Current Leader - Amatistats
Now my picks for The Kentucky Derby. The derby is known as “the most exciting two minutes” in sports. Making a bet on it, makes it more exciting and the Derby is great race to bet on. The reason is that there will be twenty horses racing at the same time. That makes for a crowded track. They will bump each other. They will get cut off and maybe boxed in. These horses are babies who have just turned three years old. They have only run a handful of races. Most have not raced at this long distance ( 1 1/4 miles) or possibly even this type of track (dirt). Therefore most of the horses will have odds above 20-1 which would pay $42 on a $2 bet. And all of them have a chance of winning. I think the favorite only wins about 30% of the time. So your small bets can have big payoffs at the Derby.
Personally, I like to bet on horses that have won their last couple of races and are in top form. But I don’t like to bet the favorites because they don’t pay well. This isn’t like stock market investing. I’m not looking for long term gains here. I’m are gambling and I want a decent return on my wager.
Eskendereya
In the derby the favorite is Eskenderya who won dominantly in the Wood Memorial & Fountain of Youth by more then 8 horse lengths. Even though he will be a favorite at 9/5 odds, you will have to put him in any exactor and triactor bets and box the bets because there is a very good chance he will win. For next best, I like Sidney’s Candy (8-1) because he has three solid wins including the Santa Anita which is a tough race.
Sidney's Candy
After these two, I think any number of horse can come in or who knows, maybe even win. So I am going to make some long shot bets on Setsuko 25/1, Ice Box 15/1, American Lion 30/1, and Supersaver 30/1 just to cover my ass. I will also include them in a triactor bet. Triactors are difficult bets to win, because you have to pick 1st, 2nd, and 3rd in the right order, but they pay well in the rare chance you get one. So here is what I will bet:
Sidney’s Candy – win/place $50 costs $100 pays $200 to $600 approx.
Eskenderya/Sidney’s Candy – exactor box $20 costs $40 pays $120 to $400 approx.
Eskenderya/Sidney’s Candy with Eskenderya/Sidney’s Candy with Setsuko, Ice Box, American Lion, and SuperSaver, Looking at Lucky – triactor wheel $2 costs $20 pays $100 to $300
Setsuko, Ice Box, American Lion, and Supersaver– win/place $10 costs $80 pays $225 to $450
Cost = $240
After the race, I’ll post my win/loss results in the comments.
My mother who is a good handicapper disagrees with my pick of Sidney’s Candy. Sidney’s Candy is a front runner with lots of speed and there are a lot of speed horses that will be with him at the front of the race. She believes that Eskenderya and Looking at Lucky can handle that speed and will be able to run him down in the final stretch.
If you are a horse race fan, I would be interested to hear your thoughts and picks for the Derby.
Happy Endings
Indeed written for last year’s derby with the incorrect date of March 1… should say May 1.
So it should say May 1, opposed to March 1. I recall noticing the error when this entry was created.
Tom
That article is almost two years old. It’s irrelevant now.
So it should have/should said May 1, opposed to March 1. ;)
I know i am a little late to the party put i happen to live in KY and the Ky Derby is not March 1 it is held the first weekend of May. May 7th 2011
Lee,
That article was written for last year’s Derby.
Easy Tom, I was just giving you some shit. I wanted to make sure somebody responded to my worn out diatribe.
I’m not eating anything up. When there is proof that a video is being played they are removed.
I stated that not everyone chats or has to chat with those in their room at every moment, mainly beings that there has been a lot of skeptics; there is just as much ineptness for those questioning to realize that those committing the video playing abuse can be chatting as much as the live broadcasters not doing so.
Just when I think this is a closed case, you come up with some junk that drags me back into it. ROFL !
Nice fairy tale. Call me a cynic, but I’m suppose to believe this? This “girl” is so dim witted that in 5 months of broadcasting she hasn’t been able to figure out how to use it? Oh, she never saw the chat bar. I guess that covers the no chatting ever for 5 months part, cause she couldn’t see the chat bar. No, wait.. You said she doesn’t want to speak to every guy that comes in (tom eats that up). That eludes to the fact that she could chat but chose not to. Seems a bit conflicting.
I’ll have to assume you contacted her though some other means to converse with her and explain how to resize her screen so now she can choose never to chat. I suppose someone that figures out how to broadcast on cam4 could actually be so dense and technically inept that they couldn’t ascertain how to resize their screen.
Ok, so the above sounds like a crock to me, but like I said, I am a cynic. Let’s assume the usual, that I am “dead wrong”, and we can ignore all I’ve just said.
So happens I was scanning cam4 a few days ago. Yep, the party in question was broadcasting. I watched for a bit as I usually do because I find this “story” entertaining. Same typical mindless totally disconnected from reality broadcast. I watched for a few minutes. Screen froze on a certain distinct pose, picked up 10 seconds later with a different distinct pose, froze again, went to a blank red background, and ended shortly thereafter. Now why do I remember these odd details? Because I was lucky enough happen across a repeat performance later on that same day. I know, I know, I’m dead wrong. Just some weird Déjà Vu experience on my part. Suppose if I was maniacal enough I could go to the trouble of capping identical broadcasts to prove my point, but who would care?
I like the “If one is not to your liking you simply choose another cam.”. I know someone that got that same exact line as a response when they tried reporting sexybridie as a video several months ago. Yeah, that could be a coincidence and just some stock response you dole out.
Like I stated early on, I don’t really give a rats ass as to what cam4 is doing in this situation. Suffice to say that you’ve done your job. You’ve kept me entertained and coming back. Now if you could only get me to quit blocking all your ads and to click on one, then you’d really have something !
I don’t think you can drag me into this subject again, but I have been known to be DEAD WRONG.
She is live as I spoke directly with her for quite a few minutes. The quality of someones cam does not necessarily indicate a video. Given the amount of HD video available now you could argue the opposite was true and the higher the quality more likely a video.
Either way, you are correct as I believe everyone should view cams as they do their TV. If one is not to your liking you simply choose another cam.
As for the question about nudity; you are not required to show anything on cam. The contest winners are based purely on number of viewers, not what they’re wearing, etc.
And my case in point. :D
Thanks Kim!
I suppose this subject has been beaten to death, but since this came up and a certain broadcaster was specifically named here I have noticed that said cammer has suddenly been on a lot more lately. I’ve only been here a year and I don’t claim to be very tech savvy, but if this person is truly live on cam I would be very surprised. The quality of the broadcast is very poor and looks like cam feeds looked nearly a decade ago, with the “choppy” look that I’ve never seen on any recent broadcast. In addition, I see no evidence that said cammer ever actually shows anything other than an occasional nipple flash, and I was under the (perhaps mistaken) impression that full body nudity was required in order to win awards? Whatever the case, if the admins have ruled this person to be a legit broadcaster then the matter is settled and I guess the best thing to do if you feel someone is not live is to simply not watch them.
Ok.. let me just say that I felt like a bloody stalker!
I was able to speak with SexyBridie today and she is a delightful young lady.
1. She doesn’t want to speak to every guy that comes in and that’s her choice.
2. There was an issue with her screen sizing that caused her chat bar to be hidden. I showed her how to adjust it so she’s able to respond should she choose.
She is not a video; she is live.
Again, I’m not disagreeing with “Sexybridie.” I’m stating a reality based on when there is so much of people believe that someone is playing a video when they are truly live.
Tom, when discussing Sexybridie, bear in mind that we are not talking about someone not “chatting with those in their room all the time.” We are talking about someone who, in the numerous times I have seen her, has never chatted with anyone at anytime. I have never seen her near a keyboard nor even appearing to be typing on an off-screen keyboard. While it is true that this proves nothing as to whether of not the broadcast is a video, it does, at least in the minds of some, make the broadcast appear suspicious.
I hope I do catch a broadcast some day where “the admins will private chat” with her and she does reach for a keyboard to respond. I along with others, think she is just gorgeous and would like nothing more than to see this all put to rest.
I have seen them, that doesn’t take away that not everyone will be chatting with those in their room all the time.
Tom, most of this BS chat has been inspired by one specific case. If you had seen the multiple broadcasts in question, you would understand that none of your arguments apply.
…..and when broadcasters aren’t aware that anyone has entered their room, when there are so few entering and exiting within seconds.
It isn’t possible for broadcasters to chat all the time. They could be browsing other cams, chatting in other rooms, not close enough to their keyboard to correspond, don’t have anything to say/don’t feel like saying much and IM’ing with people via Yahoo! Instant Messenger, Skype, Windows Live Messenger (MSN) and/or AOL Instant Messenger.
There are those playing videos that are chatting in their rooms.
Admin is correct, I have been looking for her. Unfortunately, she’s not a regular cammer. Prior to you seeing her, Dr Sin, she hadn’t been on for almost a month and it very well may be another month before she’s on again. This happens from time to time but as Admin stated above, what we are seeing with her previous broadcast she does not appear to be a video. We won’t know for sure until we get to view her and we will.
Two words, Mr. President. Plausible deniability.
Ok, last one. After all this talk about the sexybridie enigma, what shows up after I close the door? I look around today and there’s another sexbridie video. ROFL, U guys are rich !
Well I don’t watch every cam so I’m not sure what’s up with that. My main admin was going to look out for her. Not sure if she saw her today or not.
Ok, I’m done. I’ve beat the dead horse long enough. If your actually taking the time to analyze and delete 500+ bogus accounts a day, you’re already overworked. The things I’m suggesting would only force you to view more broadcast material for longer periods of time. Considering a lot of the content, don’t know I’d wish that on anyone. Keep doing what you and I do appreciate your efforts.
Dr Sin. We will be working on improved reporting systems for the users of the site and more automated ways of catching people. We are hoping to improve on what we do now. Thanks for your comments.
Regarding your above challenge to Dr Sin about broadcasting a video and seeing how long it takes for you to shut it down, I can tell you of a 2 recent observations. Yesterday, this one was broadcasting for at least 30 minutes https://www.cam4.com/tickleme009 and ceased broadcasting on its own. I reported it about 9 minutes into its broadcast and nobody on cam4 reacted to it within that time. About an hour later it came back on while I was broadcasting. This especially pissed me off because, being the attention whore that I am, it occurred during my broadcast and prevented me from getting the number 1 position. LOL Seems like you caught it that time and it was gone a while later.
Today https://www.cam4.com/lickmine001 was broadcasting what looked to be almost the same video that https://www.cam4.com/tickleme009 was broadcasting yesterday. The thumbnail showed that it had been on for almost an hour before I noticed it and reported it. Within 10 minutes of my reporting it, the broadcast stopped and the account was deleted.
In addition to the obvious threats to cam4’s credibility and your viewer’s security these scammers pose, I really hate to see your viewers make fools of themselves trying to communicate with these frauds. Also, they take away viewers from legitimate broadcasters (something that is important when your an attention whore or trying to compete for Cam of the Month).
As far as SexyBridie goes, she is an enigma. It’s not that she doesn’t respond immediately to someone; I have never seen her respond to anyone, visually or in the chat. This does tend to make some people very suspicious as to her validity as a live broadcaster.
Ally, You are right that both tickleme009 and lickmine001 were deleted for being videos. These are spammers that setup multiple accounts. A number of these accounts were also deleted before they could broadcast. As for SexyBridie, a lot of people seem to enjoy her. I’m not sure if she has been reported and checked.
By taking a vague stance on multicasts, you open the barn door to the broadcast of pre-recorded videos. Plain and simple fact is that the difference, in most cases, is indiscernible.
I guess you can still weed out some of the extremely obvious videos, but that’s about it.
You say you can’t allow videos, but in effect you just have. I can identify these things a mile away, and there’s a lot of them. Even if these multicasts are technically live to the first target audience, they appear exactly as videos to the secondary audience.
The longer cam4 exists, the more discriminating your viewers will become and the more they will object to this kind of lame activity – or they’ll just leave.
I certainly have found all this suspect content to be a detractor and I view cam4 less and less as time goes by. Lately, I’ve found responding to this blog to be a heck of a lot more entertaining that your “live” broadcasts. But I don’t think that’s gonna last too long.. Lucky you !
Dr Sin, Live is ok, videos are deleted. There is no vague stance. If it’s appears to be a video and gets no response from admins, its deleted as if it’s a video.
So, multicasts are ok and you didn’t understand my definition of the term. I did find it odd that you agreed with me.
IMHO muticasts are lame as HELL. Content wise, it is no better than watching a pre-recorded video. There is no interaction with the audience and it’s painfully obvious that the broadcaster is involved with something entirely unrelated to the people that are watching.
If you’re going roll over on multicasts, then I should be permitted to broadcast a recorded video of a camming session I did on another camming site. It has the same attraction of a multicast and the only difference is a time lag. The word “live” looses its meaning.
So, you might as well allow pre-recorded videos as long as the content is original and non repetitive, for it’s impossible to tell the difference from a multicast.
Dr. Sin, I agree that multicasting is not the best because the broadcasters are trying to pay attention to two or more groups of people. That doesn’t justify video though. We can’t allow video. Cam4 is not (primarily) a video site. Cam4 is a live cam site. Live cams are what is the important thing. The users don’t want to see videos.
Kentucky Derby scanner = The majority of you winner are multicast or videos from professional cam girls, I myself report these scammers everyday with little or no effect from admin some even play the same videos on a regular basis. But the end of the day this site is now about how many people they can get to click on the website to gain as much revenue as possible. There seams no point in reporting anyone if admin dont give a fuck about the genuine account holder on cam4…..
Greenfungi, we delete many accounts each day for playing videos.
So a live broadcast that is fed to more than just cam4 is not acceptable? I personally know several broadcasters who do this by using webcam tools like ManyCam and none are attempting to defraud or scam anyone–they simply want a larger number of viewers by taking advantage of multiple cam sites at once. I think they would be shocked to learn that they could be deleted simply for doing something that seems relatively harmless if they are not attempting to advertise another site or get paypal donations.
Verica, Sorry I misunderstood what was meant by multicast. If a person is broadcasting live, that is ok for Cam4. If they are broadcasting to a number of sites live at the same time, that would be ok, as long as they are live. If they broadcast a prerecorded cam, a video, this is not allowed and deleted.
Look, I’m willing to admit that in the world of sleazy internet porn sites you’re probably a notch above. Since I’ve no career in the porn business, I really can’t tout that particular type of experience.
What I can tell you is that I’ve been involved in internet camming going back to the days of NetMeeting (around 1995) as both a viewer and a participant. I’ve pretty much seen it all. If I can’t spot a pre-recorded video, then nobody can.
If I give you the benefit of the doubt on your claim of diligence, then there is one possible and relatively recent form of cam spamming that could explain what I have seen. Multicasting. Where an individual is involved in a primary broadcast/chat and then takes the same video and feeds it to numerous other cam sites, usually the free ones. There is NO other possible explanation for the case in point.
So what’s your stance on multicasting? I happened to bring up the same subject on another camming site and was told that they didn’t care as long as the broadcaster wasn’t advertising the other site. In my view, I see it as being no better than a pre-recorded video.
We wouldn’t want any video on the site even multicasting. When we find it, we delete the account. I could see people trying to use it to win the cam of the day or scammers do it by recording girls cams then rebroadcasting, asking for paypal for private, then don’t show. It’s pretty tough as you still have to sit there and type. Once we get complaints like that the accounts are deleted. Usually when there is a video report the admins will private chat the people and if no response, will kick or ban the cammer. If you can spot this stuff, please report it. We do check all the reports and Kim our lead admin is pretty good at catching scammers like this.
Geeze, I hate being double dead wrong !! While I’m willing to admit that almost anything is possible, some things are certainly not probable. If I’m double dead right, would I have expected anything other than the way you responded? Of course not.
The interesting facet of this is that you chose to respond at all. Have to admit, I did not expect that. Nice to be surprised once in a while.
Other than that we’ll just have to agree that we disagree. Thanks for the entertaining replies.
Well there is no way I can prove this to you so I guess that we have to disagree. I can tell you that I’ve been in this business a long time. I know the dating sites that have the fake ads. I know the credit card scams and the fake content sites. We are determined to run cam4 different than this. No viruses, no scams, no fake profiles, a fair membership price with no cross sells or other billing tricks. Sure we have a lot of advertising, but if we sold enough memberships, we would get rid of the advertising. If we could monetize another way, we would make all the features free. A couple weeks ago we canned an advertiser who was doing shading billing on his website and we’ve fired advertisers that installed viruses. We currently delete 500 accounts per day for spamming, underage, harassing people and playing videos.
Don’t think I’m quite dead wrong :) Let me give you the classic example that has been playing canned videos for well over a year. https://www.cam4.com/sexybridie .This one has been reported multiple times. Page thru the comments section and you’ll see numerous complaints.
Another funny thing is I personally know a few people that take the time to report directly to cam4 when they see videos and get a timely response. That is except when they complain about sexybridie. Then they mysteriously get no response.
Sorry if that sounds a little too fishy to me, but it does. If you care to provide a reasonable explanation, I’m willing to listen. I’ve seen more with the same M.O. but I’m not really interested in policing cam4 activities. I just find these anomalies interesting, especially in light of your “Go ahead and try to play a video” challenge.
Now if I were so motivated (which I am not) could I play videos on a regular basis and could you catch me if I did? I strongly doubt it. I’d love to take the challenge but I don’t have the raw material or the time.. Now if you wanted to make an interesting wager out of it, that might be a different story – LOL :P
Your dead wrong. We do not sanction fake pre-recorded video. Our admins constantly remove people playing videos. Just because people report videos doesn’t mean they are video. They get reported because people do not like the person, they want to harass them, or because they are trying to win cam of the day and they are competition with them. Look in any chat and you will see people thinking it’s video when it’s obviously not. Just because someone doesn’t respond immediately to you, in a room of hundreds, doesn’t mean it’s a video. I checked the person you mentioned. If they are playing videos, they have a lot of them, as her last 10 broadcasts are in different clothes with different arrangements of her room. If there are complaints and she is not removed, it’s probably because the admin, have checked, have talked to her, and think that it is a real person.
Funny stuff with the Derby analogy. Why not follow up with some jokes about how you allow and sanction fake pre-recorded junk and try to pass it off as “live” amateur broadcasts? Bet you get some yucks out of that. You should share.
Dr Sin, You are dead wrong. We shut down anyone playing a video and we don’t play them ourselves. We don’t need to play videos as there are 1000s of live cams every minute of the day. Go ahead and try to play a video and see how long before it’s shut down.
Hola Esteban88, si es verdad, madonatrans es muy guapa, por lastima no alcanza cada día el numero de usuarios que miran a las otras, por esto no está en la “carrera” ;)
Can’t tolerate the admin to stay all the winter freezing, if you prefer you can move with your trailer and pass the winter here…to study for next year Derby…to be able to buy a CRS-3 router with part of the winnings of course
xq madonna trans no participa? osea las shemales q salen estan buenas pero y madonna? very good the blog,
Gracias. Madonnatrans va a Espana por vacaciones y retorno pronto
Please, tell us in the last minute you bet all on “Super Saver” and you will buy a Cisco CRS-3 router to heat your trailer :)
It’s going to be a cold winter. I bet on every horse except Supersaver. I didn’t win a penny.
Hey Cam4. When are you guys going to fire the current “Models”, and get some some new ones?
Michelle27, SweetDiva, Innocentlove, Marcie, Roxy, among others are burned out, and boring now. I think it’s time that you guys start scouting the female cams, and hire some of the American chicks, now. I see plenty that deserve to take the jobs of the current boring “Models”.
Just sayin’.
Ok I’ve studied everything more and it’s all more confusing. With Eskenderya and Setsuko out, it equalizes all the other horses and makes it more difficult to choose. SuperSaver is the favorite at 7-1 because he has won at Churchill Down, won in the mud (today will be rain & mud), has a beyer speed rating of 99, and Borel a jockey from Churchill Downs that has won the derby before. You have to put him in all your exotics. 7-1 is a good won bet as well paying $15 for a $2 bet and the odds may go higher.
Lookin at Lucky is 9-1 which is a great price. I think he should be the favorite. Sidney’s Candy is 11-1 and could run on the front the entire way and win.
Others that I like are Ice Box 11-1, Noble’s Promise 21-1, Stately Victor15-1, and Awesome Act 14-1.
I’m thinking
$100 Win/Place Lookin at Lucky
$50 Win/Place Sidney’s Candy
$1 EXACTOR BOX – 1,2,3,6,16,29 which are all the horses I listed above for a cost of $30
$1 TRIACTOR BOX – 1, 2, 16, 20 which dumps Noble’s Promise (doubt about lung injury) and Super Saver (front runner and they don’t usually win) for a cost of $24
That’s a total of $354 bet. I may change at the last minute due to odds changes, late scratches or news. If you bet, let us know how you made out.
Good Luck
Please get rid of the horrible orange pop up for cams.com it ruins the site.
Henda, Cam4 doesn’t make enough money from membership sales to pay it’s costs. Cam4 has to do advertisements to non-members to cover the costs of hosting, etc. If you are a gold member, you do not have ads popping up. A gold membership costs $19.95 and has other benefits as well like viewing multiple cams at once, full screen, chat with the pornstars, enhanced search.
Scratched or not, I think this post was creatively written and a very fun read for everyone. Kudos to the author, mr. admin.
But its not horses that i’m rooting for these days, its Cisco’s CRS-3 routers. HAHA I hope we’ll have one for cam4, it will surely blow our heads (no pun intended) away.
A morning after posting that article I see this in Bloodhorse
Eskendereya Scratched Out of Derby
Eskendereya, favored for the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I), was scratched out of the May 1 classic on the morning of April 25 due to slight filling in his left front leg.
So the favorite, Eskendereya, is scratched and my pick will now be the favorite and will have lower odds. I have to change all my strategy and bets.